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Cable Breaks Lower Article 50 Confirmed March 29

Market Analysis

GBPUSD, H1                 

Cable has wobbled on confirmation that the U.K. will miss next EU summit with official Brexit start. The U.K. is reportedly set to start official Brexit talks by triggering Article 50 on March 29, just shortly after the next regular EU summit on March 25. The next official council is currently not scheduled before June. And after waiting 9 months following the referendum to finally get the ball rolling, EU officials don’t seem in a mood to rush things now, especially with the Easter break approaching and the upcoming French Presidential elections complicating matters. EU officials will start negotiations “once the guidelines from the European Council are there and once the formal mandate by the Council is there” and that is unlikely to be the case before May at the very earliest. So the 2-year count down for an agreement before the U.K. crashes out of the single market will start next week, but talks are unlikely to start “in earnest” before the summer.

GBPUSD rallied earlier today, on general USD weakness, over the 124.00 handle for the first time in over a month but gave up the gains quickly as the Brexit news broke.  Next support on the 1 hour chart is the lower Bollinger band at 1.2360 and the on the 4 hour chart 1.2322 which is also the Daily low from Friday (March 17) and the 20 day moving average.

 

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Stuart Cowell

Senior Market Analyst

HotForex

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