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EURUSD and in-line ADP data

Market Analysis

EURUSD, H4

The 190k November ADP rise undershot our 250k private BLS payroll estimate with a 260k total payroll increase by 60k, following a 17k undershoot in October but an 81k (was 94k) overshoot in September for a net 4k overshoot for the period, as we digest the differing impact that adverse weather has on the two reports. We saw a lean 36k November goods employment rise that underperformed firm factory sentiment readings, with gains of a robust 40k for factories but with a 4k drop for construction that defied the hurricane rebuild-lift, alongside an expected 155k service employment climb. Workers are included in ADP payrolls even if they miss work due to bad weather, whereas workers are only counted as working in the BLS payroll report if they worked during the BLS survey period. The reported ADP figures also include input from other macro-data that are weather affected, like initial claims, though the net weather impact is smaller for ADP than for the BLS figures. The “as reported” ADP figures have overshot private payrolls in every month since the methodology change of October 2016 except April, June, and October of this year.

The dollar edged briefly higher following the in-line ADP jobs outcome, though retreated on the weaker productivity revision, which saw unit labor costs fall. EURUSD slipped to 1.1810 from near 1.1820 before bouncing back to 1.1823. The EURUSD still struggles to sufficiently pick above 1.18s lows seen yesterday as well.  However in the daily timeframe , the pair despite the break below November Up-channel and the  weakness seen for 4 consecutive Days, is still traded on the upper Bollinger Bands pattern. Hence a closing today below the 20-Day MA and a break of the 200-period EMA, at 1.1780-1.1790 in the 4-hour chart, will confirm sellers control. On the break of these level, the next immediate support is 1.1710-1.1730.

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

HotForex

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