European Outlook: Asian stock markets rebounded from the weak session on Monday. Chinese shares in Hong Kong rallied on financial companies following, while the ASX 200 underperformed despite a weaker currency after dovish RBA minutes. U.K and U.S. stock futures are mostly slightly down, despite the positive leads out of Asia and reports that PM May is willing to double the “divorce” settlement to the EU to EUR 40 bln ahead of the December EU summit that could clear the way for early trade and transition talks. BoE’s Ramsden said last night that Brexit prospects are reinforcing the trend of declining productivity in the economy. In Germany there are more signs that another round of elections is underway, after Merkel said yesterday that whe prefers new elections to leading a minority government as both FDP and SPD still refuse to enter a coalition with the Chancellor. Germany’s political turmoil failed to dent confidence in the GER30 yesterday, but still has the potential to shake markets going ahead. Today’s calendar has public finance data out of the U.K.
Market Summary: Trading was rather quiet to start the week, with little on the global agenda, and nothing on the US domestic calendar, to provide a spark. Markets were quick to shrug off the failure of German Chancellor Merkel establish a coalition government, while ECB’s Draghi continued to urge policy patience. Political uncertainty in Germany after news that Chancellor Merkel has been unable to form a minority government caused an early stir, weighing on equities and giving bonds a little bid. But, that was quickly shaken off after President Steinmeier stepped in to try and get parties back to the negotiating table. Beliefs the German economy was also strong enough to withstand any turbulence saw the GER30 rebound and Bund yields rise. Meanwhile, U.S. leading indicates leapt 1.2% in October, though reaction was typically minimal given the rebound from the hurricanes. Yellen also confirmed she plans to leave the Fed board as part of the expected handover to Powell. Canadian markets were generally hostage to these events, along with uncertainties over the U.S. political situation, and especially tax policies.
Main Macro Events Today
- RBA – RBA Gov Lowe speaks at the Australian Business Economists Annual Dinner, in Sydney.
- UK Inflation & Public Net Borrowing – Expectations – Monthly government borrowing data expected at 6.6B Pounds. BOE Governor and MPC members testify on inflation and the economic outlook prior Parliament’s Treasury Committee.
- Canadian Wholesale Sales – Expectations – a rise at 0.6% from 0.5% seen last month.
- US Existing Home Sales – Expectations – seen rising 0.7% to a 5.43 mln unit pace from 5.39 mln previously.
Charts of the Day
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