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US Dollar still on Demand

Market Analysis

AUDUSD & USDCAD, H1

 The Australian dollar came under some pressure after the RBA left policy on hold, as was widely expected, but as the accompanying statement of Governor Lowe remained non committal in tone, acknowledging improving economic growth but reaffirming that the inflation outlook remains subdued. Based on hourly and 30 minutes Chart, a Short position was taken at 0.7811,  once the 30-Minute candle closed bearishly on the lower Bollinger band area.  The Short position was triggered by a long legged Bearish candle earlier, which failed to break the 20-period MA on the hourly chart, but also the  confluence of a downtrend seen since September 22 peak and 50-period MA. The RSI is below 50, while Parabolic SAR remains negative. Targets have been set at 0.7797  and 0.7780 for 1-hour and 4-hour charts respectively.  Support is at 0.7825.

On US Dollar demand, another position was taken today on USDCAD which today lifted to a one-month high of 1.2538. After a correction seen on the hourly chart down to 1.2506, we saw a pullback upwards, and a closing above the 20-period MA. Hence a Long entry was taken at 1.2524, however this time for longer time-frames such as 4-hour but also Daily ones. In the 4-hour charts, 50-period MA cross above 200-period MA, while Stochastics remain above 80 level since morning.

The pair is moving for a second consecutive day above the 50-DAY MA, while it is in an uptrend since mid September.

However, aside from prevailing strength in the greenback, the Canadian dollar has been spinning after BoC Governor Poloz last week unexpectedly threw cold water on market expectations for further rate hikes, saying that the central bank was not on a predetermined path while emphasizing that there are “important unknowns” to be watched closely. The loonie has fallen nearly 4% versus the greenback since its early September lows. But important is the fact that the US dollar is in demand as markets continue to adjust to the rekindled hawkishness of the Fed,and therefore this keep Loonie back on recovering September’s loss.

Hence for USDCAD, Target 1 was set at 1.2550,  which is on the upper Bollinger Band line and above recent high fractals seen in the H4 chart. Target 2 which is a Daily Target was set 1.2588.  Support is at 1.2470. 

 

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

HotForex

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