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US Durable Goods Rebounds

Market Analysis

USDCAD, H1

Today’s US and Canadian data release sees – U.S. durable goods orders rebounded 1.3% in November, shy of expectations, from a revised 0.4% decline (was -0.8%; September’s 2.2% gain was revised up to 2.4%). Transportation orders increased 4.2% following October’s 3.9% drop (revised from -4.3%). Excluding transportation, orders dipped 0.1% from the prior 1.3% gain (revised from 1.0%). Non defence capital goods orders excluding aircraft slipped 0.1% too, after the prior 0.8% gain (revised from -0.5%). Shipments climbed 1.0% from 0.5% (revised from 0.4%). Non defence capital goods shipments excluding aircraft were up 0.3% from 1.3% (revised from 1.1%). Inventories increased 0.2%, the same as in October. The inventory-shipment ratio slipped to 1.66 from 1.67.

U.S. personal income rose 0.3% in November with spending up 0.6%. The 0.4% increase in October income was not revised (though September was nudged up to 0.5% from 0.4%). The 0.3% spending increase in October was bumped down to 0.2% (September’s prior 0.9% gain was nudged up to 1.0%). Compensation increased 0.4% versus 0.2% previously (revised from 0.3%). Wage and salary income improved 0.4% from 0.2% (revised from 0.3%). Disposable income rose 0.4% versus the prior 0.4% gain (revised from 0.5%). The savings rate slowed to 2.9% from 3.2%. The PCE chain price index increased 0.2% after October’s 0.1% gain, and posted a 1.8% y/y rate from 1.6% y/y previously. The core rate increased 0.1% from 0.2% and is up 1.5% y/y versus 1.4% y/y. The inflation rate

Canada GDP was flat (0.0%) in October after the 0.2% gain in September. The lack of growth in October GDP begins Q4 on a weak note, and makes the BoC’s 2.5% estimate for real Q4 GDP a bit of a stretch as we need very strong monthly GDP growth in November and December to achieve the BoC’s projected Q4 growth rate.is moving up slightly, but is still below the FOMC’s 2% target.

The results saw a sharp rebound in USDCAD from today’s low under 1.2700 pre-data to 1.2795. Next resistance is the H1 200 EMA and Daily R1 at 1.2815. Support  is now the Daily pivot at 1.2755 and the cluster of fractal highs at 1.2745.

 

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Stuart Cowell

Senior Market Analyst

HotForex

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