The USD headed to session highs after the stronger Chicago PMI outcome, taking EURUSD to 1.0594 lows, down from earlier N.Y. session highs of 1.0653, and USDJPY to intra-day highs of 113.74. Support remains at 111.40 with the next upside target 114.15, 116.65 and the 2016 high of 121.40.
Today’s U.S. reports revealed solid personal income, ADP, and Chicago PMI figures that further document accelerating activity. For income, we saw a firm 0.6% October rise, with a lean 0.3% consumption increase but with the expected 0.1% “real” gain thanks to a lean 0.2% PCE chain price rise. We saw skewing of Q3 income and consumption strength toward September that lifted the entry to Q4, beyond the expected upward income revisions in Q2 and Q3, and Q3 consumption boosts. We lifted our consumption estimates, though we still peg Q4 GDP growth at 1.8%. A 216k November ADP rise beat our 180k estimate for private payrolls with a 190k total payroll increase, though we saw a big 28k downward October ADP revision to 119k from 147k that left a downside gap to the 142k private payroll increase in that month. We saw a November Chicago PMI surge to a 22-month high of 57.6 to leave a robust level as producer sentiment extends its uptrend. We still expect a 190k rise in November payrolls on Friday.
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