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USDCAD eyes 12800 post Powell Part I

Market Analysis


USDCAD has rallied to a two-month high of 1.2779 with relative yield differentials having broken favourably for the U.S. dollar following the testimony of new Fed Chairman Powell, yesterday. Powell’s optimistic tone, along with his emphasis on fiscal policy stimulus, raised the odds for a more aggressive rate stance, with the possibility of four quarter point hikes in the funds rate, rather than three, now being entertained by Fed watchers. In contracts, the OIS market was yesterday discounting no more than 50% odds for the BoC to hike rates in April. The next Canadian data of note will be January industrial product prices later today, where expectations are fro a 0.5% m/m gain. Q4 current account and December and Q4 GDP data are also due this week, on Thursday and Friday, respectively. The NAFTA renegotiation remains a font of uncertainty for the Canadian economy.

Let the trend be your friend. The pair’s technical bull trend credentials, in evolution since early February, are strong,  higher highs and higher lows,  a rising RSI momentum indicator (14 day), which is strengthening while still being short of “overbought” levels.  Additionally, the key 50 day moving average was breached on the 20th and yesterday the even more significant 200 day moving average was breached and broken. Next stop is the weekly resistance at 1.2820 area  with support at 1.2720 and 1.2680.

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Stuart Cowell

Senior Market Analyst


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