USDCAD has remained heavy, sinking back to around 1.2745 this morning after failing to sustain rebound gains above 1.2800 yesterday, though the pair has so far remained above yesterday’s nine-day low at 1.2714. Yield differentials have been swinging this week in favour of the downside for USDCAD. A speech by BoC governor Poloz yesterday inspire a spike in Canadian yields as he stressed that the word “caution” is note a code word for being on hold while saying that policymakers are increasingly confidence that less stimulus will be needed. The U.S. dollar dynamic has also shifted following benign CPI inflation data out of the U.S. on Wednesday, which was backed up by a less hawkish than had been expected guidance from the Fed after it delivered a fully discounted quarter point rate hike. On the other hand, softer oil prices have undermined the Canadian dollar somewhat.
The wild swings yesterday prompted a new short position on the H4 chart at 1.2784 with a target down at 1.2690 in line with the 14 period ATR and the higher time frame sentiment and direction. Resistance to the move lower is the 200 period moving average at 1.2755. The parabolic SAR remains negative. The widening Bollinger band following yesterdays volatility and the RSI at 36 and falling suggest further weakness ahead. A retrace and hold over the 1.2880 zone will negate this move.
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Senior Market Analyst
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