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USDZAR at 12 month highs

Market Analysis

USDZAR, H1, Daily

The South African Rand weakened on Friday and the USDZAR closed the week above a key Daily resistance level (14.4920). The move has continued today as the FT report that “the departure of a senior civil servant raised fears that supporters of the president were interfering with the Treasury’s operations to force through controversial spending measures. The National Treasury said in a statement that Michael Sachs was leaving the department in order to “serve the public sector in a different capacity”.  USDZAR has moved over 1.2% to 14.5688 and South African government Bonds are also under pressure today.

The weakening Rand and break of the Daily resistance level on Friday and today’s move takes it above the next WEEKLY resistance, and to one year highs.  Although the Dialy chart is approaching over bought levels with RSI at 69 and rising the uptrend is well established with the Parbolic SAR positive and break of the latest Fractal high.  The Bollinger bands are expanding and sloping positively to suggest possible further upside.

The 14.4920 level should be monitored this week as a close over this area and the pair will have next resistance at 14.7733 which also represents an important Monthly level.  All three higher time frames have been aligned positively from November 3.

Intra-day the H1 has resistance at the 11:00 Fractal high 14.5446 and support at 14.4708. The RSI is 78 and rising and has been overbought from this mornings shock resignation

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Stuart Cowell

Senior Market Analyst

HotForex

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